As I sit here writing this, it’s t-minus 48 hours and counting until the Kings’ 2010-11 season. Clifford, Loktionov, Lewis, Schenn and Westgarth have made the team up to this point. Expectations are high in Los Angeles. With that, it’s time for me to make my predictions for the Kings’ upcoming season.
FORWARDS
Gone is the enigmatic Alexander Frolov, who heads to the NY Rangers as a free agent. Gone are Fredrik Modin and Jeff Halpern. Only notable loss of that group might be Frolov, who was enigmatic at best in LA in 7 seasons. At times Frolov sparkled and looked as if he were ready to take over the entire league. Many nights his effort seemed lackluster. In the end, you knew last season was likely to be his final one in LA. Replacing him is former Maple Leaf and Penguin Alexei Ponikarovsky, a perennial 20 goal scorer who is an upgrade in his own end of the ice from Frolov. Poni will be a perfect fit on the third line with Handzus and Simmonds.
There’s been an infusion of new blood into the Kings’ lineup up front. 2009 first round pick Brayden Schenn is in the opening night lineup, as is 2009 second round pick Kyle Clifford. Fellow rookie Kevin Westgarth joins them on the 4th line. All of the aforementioned players had great camps – and my guy feeling is, if Schenn performs well and Jaret Stoll fails to be effective on the second line, Schenn may find himself sandwiched between Justin Williams and whomever the second line LW is sooner than you think.
The Kings retain all three players from last season’s top line, who was the best line in hockey for the first third of the 2009-10 season. Coach Terry Murray decided to swap Justin Williams for Captain Dustin Brown, and the trio looked great together during preseason. Terry Murray is implementing a new breakout style, designed to eliminate the dumping and chasing that the Kings have done under Murray the past two seasons. It should increase the creativity level. I expect to see Kopitar break the 40 goal barrier, and for Dustin Brown and Ryan Smyth to increase their point totals by crashing the net. Brown will get close to the 30 goal mark and Smyth will net 20-25.
The second line is a probably the teams’ biggest question mark. Jaret Stoll has been an effective role player for the Kings, but he is better suited to the 3rd or 4th lines. Since the Kings at present lack a true #2 center, Stoll starts with the job by default. Stoll has potential to net 20 goals. Justin Williams looks better than he ever has as a King and if he stays healthy, should score 20-25 goals. Left Wing is the big question here. Scott Parse is expected to be poised for a breakout year, but an injury in camp has him on IR to begin the season. Brad Richardson will be the team’s second line LW to begin the season. Richardson I love as a player. He is all heart, all hustle. Defensively responsible. He scored a ton of goals in junior hockey, but he has yet to show that kind of skill consistently at the NHL level. It is not a stretch to say that Dean Lombardi has to be looking for an available scoring wing. Ryan Malone is the name that’s been thrown about, and he’d be the perfect addition to this Kings’ team. If neither Richardson nor Parse steps up, expect to see a similar deal made.
The Kings’ third line is quite possibly the NHL’s best. Ponikarovsky along with Michal Handzus and Wayne Simmonds make a formidable checking unit, but each of those players is a potential 20+ goal scorer. Simmonds is incredibly dynamic, and I believe is poised for a season somewhere around 25 goals. Terry Murray is notorious at this point for playing musical lines – and with his work ethic and two-way skill, Simmonds will get at least a handful of games on the top line at some point this season.
You can lament the fact that the Kings didn’t land a big time scoring winger, but you can also argue as I will, that they didn’t need one. I think a complimentary left wing that can put up 25+ goals, like the aforementioned Ryan Malone, would be a perfect fit. The intriguing thing will be watching Schenn and Clifford – do they stay with the big club all season, or will they be returned to junior before they hit the 10 game mark? Where do Loktionov and Lewis fit in?
The Kings will be fine up front provided either 1. Parse/Richardson prove effective or 2. a LW is acquired via trade for the second line. The top line will be one of the league’s best. The third line may be the league’s best “checking” unit, with a side of skill. The 4th line will be young but it’s a good way to teach the kids the defensive play required for this system. Clifford has decent hands and we know Schenn and Loktionov in particular have skill.
DEFENSE
This is not even arguably the team’s strong point. With a top 5 of Drew Doughty, Willie Mitchell, Rob Scuderi, Jack Johnson and Matt Greene the Kings have the Pacific Division’s best defensive corps by a country mile. Doughty is already the league’s premier defenseman entering only his 3rd season in the NHL. Johnson, since the Olympic break last season, has played like a man possessed. And both Drew and Jack are only going to get better. That’s a scary proposition for the rest of the league. Scuderi and Mitchell are two of the league’s elite shut down guys, and Matt Greene is a good a third pair D-man as you will see on any team.
The X-factor will be the #6 spot. Davis Drewiske seems to have it sewn up for the moment, but Drewiske is a shadow of the player he was before last season’s shoulder injury. He looks to lack confidence and hasn’t played the same game. He can be a solid NHL regular if he can get back to the level of play he showed early last season. If not, runs the risk of being a healthy scratch often.
Paired with Drewiske on opening night will be rookie Jake Muzzin. The 21 year old had a solid camp and impressed the Kings’ staff. He deserved to make the team based on what the saw, and he had to outperform 2007 first round pick Thomas Hickey to get there. Muzzin has a chance to jump Drewiske (and by default Peter Harrold) as the Kings’ #6 guy while Matt Greene is out injured for the first 3-4 weeks of the season. If he doesn’t impress, he will spend the rest of the season in Manchester. I don’t know what to expect of Muzzin in all honesty, but the kid works hard and looked good in two preseason games I saw him in.
Waiting in the wings too, are Hickey and the currently injured Viatcheslav Voynov.
GOALTENDERS
This season’s goaltending outlook may be the best it’s EVER been for the Kings’ franchise. Certainly the best since the days of Rogie Vachon. The two headed monster of Jon Quick and Jonathan Bernier make for the best tandem in the division. You could argue that Phoenix’s Ilya Bryzgalov is a better number one than Quicker is, and you might be right, but his backup is Jason LaBarbera. The Sharks have a couple guys who haven’t really ever established themselves as #1 goalies anywhere in Niemi and Nittymaki. Hiller isn’t going to save the Ducks behind that defense and Kari Lehtonen will be on IR by December. The Kings’, simply put, have the best goaltending tandem in the division, and it’s not even close.
Quick is number one for now – and Terry Murray said he expects him to play somewhere in the 55-60 game range. If that holds true, we’ll see Bernier 22-27 games, a nice sample size. If Quick hits a rut, Bernier is capable of spelling him – possibly even outperforming him. Who the guy is heading into this years playoffs will depend a lot on how each responds to the circumstances they’ve been given. In Manchester 3 seasons ago, Bernier pushed Quick to get better, and Quick ended up the Kings’ surprise #1 by that season’s end. Now, Bernier has graduated to the NHL full time, and both are under contract for the next 3 seasons. At some point, the Kings’ brass will have to decide which of these two talented young keepers is in it for the long haul. For now it’s slight advantage Quick, but I think the two headed monster will be more balanced than people think. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bernier get 30 games or more if he’s giving the team the best chance to win for a stretch – Murray has shown a propensity in the past for riding the hot hand. Either way, if healthy competition gets the best out of both guys, it’s a win-win situation in LA. Don’t forget too, Jeff Zatkoff and Martin Jones in the minors. While Ersberg’s assignment to Manchester has relegated Jones to Ontario of the ECHL, if Ersberg finds a suitor in Europe, Jones will be sharing the load with Zatkoff in Manchester. The Kings have never been so deep in goal. It’s a quality problem to have.
PREDICTION TIME
Last season the Kings finished with 102 points, 3rd in the Pacific division behind San Jose and Phoenix. This season, the Kings’ young stars are a year more experienced, and the veteran additions of Mitchell and Ponikarovsky will help to give the club some battle tested experience. I still believe Dean Lombardi will pull the trigger on another left wing before the 20 game mark as well.
The Kings of 2010-11 will improve their 5 on 5 scoring while being dominant in 5 on 5 goals-against. The power play, with Doughty and Johnson on the point, will be deadly. Schenn and Clifford, in particular, will be key contributors. Kopitar scores 40+ and gets close to the 100 point mark. Brown gets close to 30 goals, as does Justin Williams. Simmonds and Smyth hit 25. Jack Johnson finishes with a plus rating (finally). Quick and Bernier could both win more than 20 games for the only the second time in Kings’ history (Hrudey and Berthiaume, 1990-91).
By comparison with the rest of the division, the Kings only look slightly short in the firepower department with their current roster to San Jose. Even if Lombardi doesn’t acquire another wing, this Kings’ team will put plenty of pucks in the opposing nets. Defensively, the Kings are superior to every other team in the division – San Jose is their closest competition there and it’s still not even close. Phoenix lost their best defenseman – their top 2 are Jovanovski and Derek Morris. Really? Yes, really. Dallas is in flux defensively. Anaheim might be the worst defensive team in the entire NHL. The Kings goaltending duo, as previously mentioned trumps every other in the division. What am I getting at?
The Kings have the Pacific Division for the taking this season. Dean Lombardi has drafted smart, and has brought in key free agents and trade acquisitions -even if they aren’t superstars – to bolster the developing young core. I believe at least one more move gets made this season as well. I believe this team has what it takes to make a deep playoff run. And this is just the beginning of the window, too.
My predicted order of finish for the division:
1. Kings
2. San jose
3. Phoenix
4. Dallas
5. Anaheim
Dallas is really a grab bag, they will battle Anaheim for the division cellar all year. If the Stars are a complete disaster, you might be able to flip flop 4/5 here, but I refuse to give Anaheim much credit.
Division win puts the Kings at #3 headed into the playoffs. Conference Finals anyone? I see it happening.
Of course, it’s all speculation until the puck drops, isn’t it.
44 hours and counting. Hockey’s back, folks.
GO KINGS!
-JS